| Treasuries struggled to avoid further losses Friday
as the flow of U.S. economic data stayed stubbornly strong.
Bond prices had initially edged higher on pre-weekend short-covering
but quickly bowed to bouts of fresh selling when the first
of the day's data showed the U.S. housing market defying all
predictions of a slowdown.
Housing starts rose 3.4 percent in September to 1.89 million,
beating forecasts for a steady 1.82 million and adding to
already high expectations for GDP growth last quarter.
Still to come is the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment
index, which is seen at a median 88.0 in October, little changed
from September's 87.7.
Given the run of upbeat economic news recently, dealers can
only assume the risks are for an upside surprise and yet more
pressure on bonds.
The bond market is still pressured by San Francisco Federal
Reserve President Robert Parry that an accommodative policy
did not necessarily mean interest rates would stay at their
current super-low 1.0 percent.
Market traders have suspected all along that some in the
Fed thought rates could be higher, say at 2.0 percent or 3.0
percent, and still be accommodative. But this was the first
time a top central bank official has acknowledged the idea.
The net result was a sharp rise in short-term yields, a marked
flattening in the yield curve and a sell-off in Eurodollar
futures as the market priced in a greater chance of higher
rates, sooner.
More Fed speakers will be heard Friday, with governors Ben
Bernanke and Donald Kohn discussing inflation targeting at
a St. Louis Fed conference.
The market took some comfort in figures late Thursday showing
foreign central bank holdings of Treasury and agency debt
had topped $1.0 trillion dollars, up from $806.68 billion
just a year ago and equates to roughly 10 percent of U.S.
gross domestic product (GDP).
In all, the Federal Reserve's custody holdings for offshore
central banks jumped $9.38 billion in the week to Wednesday,
with Treasurys making up the majority.
The bulk of that demand comes from Asian central banks buying
dollars to limit export-damaging gains in their currencies
and traders were relieved to see that these flows had not
slackened despite pressure from the White House to let the
currencies float freely.
Still, having so much U.S. debt in so few hands made some
traders sweat.
"It would be bad enough if these guys just stopped buying,
what with all the new paper the government's issuing and the
likely impact on the dollar," said one trader at a U.S.
primary dealer. "But can you imagine if they actually
started selling?"
Market Close
The bond market is continuing to hold its ground.
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